The Long Tail of Waiting for Profitability

A new article speaks to both the confusion and promise around online distribution, with an eye towards profits:

SnagFilms...users can download widgets for any one of more than 550 documentaries available on the site, and watch the film -- which has about 90 seconds of advertising interspersed through it -- for free. SnagFilms shares the revenue, half and half, with the filmmaker. But the films need to be seen hundreds of thousands, or even millions, of times before filmmakers can see substantive income from advertising revenue.

And at this point, the viewership is just not there. What gets me is that it seems to be a split business model:

On the other hand, the site allows filmmakers to earn full revenue from any DVD sales, which are promoted along with the free download.

Should a fan either go online a thousand times to watch a favorite film, or buy the DVD? It seems to make more sense to promote one option over the other, and maximize on that particular revenue stream, esp. when dealing with a modest audience size.

Though the Long Tail of market outliers is a great idea, by its very size it seems destined to stay unprofitable for most participants. Except for that lucky lottery winner or the creator with 1,000 true fans that just may justify continued participation.